Review & Outlook
March 2022
Schon während der Pandemie der letzten zwei Jahre zeichnete sich ein baldiges Ende der Globalisierung ab. Der Einmarsch Russlands ins Nachbarland hat nun aber definitiv die Weltordnung beendet, an die wir uns seit dem Ende des Kalten Krieges vor über 30 Jahren gewöhnt hatten. Verschiedene Faktoren erscheinen nun in einem völlig anderen Licht und haben Einfluss auf Politik und Wirtschaft. Der Westen rüstet nun massiv auf und der Osten sitzt auf den lukrativen Rohstoffvorräten der Welt und darf diese wegen der verhängten Sanktionen nicht mehr in den Westen liefern. Diese Entwicklungen haben einen nachhaltigen Einfluss auf unsere Anlagepolitik. Unser grösstes Sorgenkind ist die immer stärker ansteigende Inflation geworden, welche unsere Notenbanker noch bis vor kurzem lediglich als „kurzfristigen Ausrutscher“ betrachtet haben. Nun plötzlich stehen wir vor der Tatsache, dass die Inflationsraten wohl für sehr lange Zeit hoch bleiben oder gar weiter ansteigen werden. Durch den Krieg in der Ukraine haben sich die bestehenden Lieferengpässe von dringend notwendigen Produkten nochmals verschärft. Die Sanktionen gegenüber Russland haben insbesondere die Öl- und Gaspreise in die Höhe katapultiert. Die Ukraine gilt als die Kornkammer der Welt mit einer Produktion von über 100 Millionen Tonnen Getreide jährlich, was nun zumindest in diesem Jahr ausbleiben wird. Die Folgen sind weiter steigende Preise von Nahrungsmitteln und als direkte Folgen die Gefahr von weltweiten Hungersnöten. Die Blockierung der Notenbankreserven Russlands in den USA und Europa als Druckmittel ist nachvollziehbar, hat wohl aber langfristig insbesondere für die USA negative Auswirkungen, denn Länder wie China, Indien und Saudi-Arabien müssen sich nun berechtigt die Frage stellen, ob deren Notenbankguthaben in den USA oder Europa noch sicher sind.
The US Federal Reserve has announced that it will raise benchmark interest rates over the coming months in an effort to counter inflation. This is a dangerous undertaking, however, as rising interest rates could cause the economic upturn to falter and the country might then slide into recession. It is also important to bear in mind that, because of its massive debt pile, the US cannot afford all-too-high interest rates, as its debt service costs alone devour a large proportion of its tax revenues.
In the current environment where the future outlook is so uncertain, it is absolutely necessary to broadly diversify investments. Alongside increased liquidity, we favour high-quality equities and are focusing on forward-looking domains such as climate change and green technologies. Our precious metals investments performed very well in the first quarter and should benefit from high rates of inflation over the coming months, too.
Despite the considerable suffering around us, we wish you and your family a happy Easter and an enjoyable spring.
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