Review & outlook
July 24
Ladies and Gentlemen
We are increasingly concerned about the geopolitical situation in the world, which has continued to deteriorate over the last quarter. There are no signs of any real willingness to settle these wars with constructive peace negotiations, neither in the Middle East nor in Ukraine.
The rift between East and West is becoming increasingly visible, with Russia, North Korea, Vietnam, India and China in particular increasingly promoting bilateral relations. To date, the US dollar has remained the world’s main reserve currency, although the alliance of BRICS states now wants to increasingly promote trade among themselves in local currencies. This has explosive consequences for the highly indebted USA, as China in particular, one of the USA’s largest creditors, now wants to continuously reduce its holdings of US government bonds and invest more in gold.
The American economy, which had previously been unperturbed, now also appears to be weakening under the pressure of high interest rates. Rising unemployment figures and an increasingly cooling consumer sentiment do not bode well for the near future.
There is great resentment among the population, which is reflected in the election results of the last few days in Europe. It remains to be seen how these massive shifts in the balance of political power will play out. The upcoming presidential elections in the USA are now coming into the spotlight. The first TV debate between Trump and Biden has led to great uncertainty regarding President Biden’s health. The next few months until after the US elections are therefore likely to be accompanied by major mood swings.
Inflation figures have continued to fall worldwide in recent months and a number of central banks have already cut key interest rates. The latest economic data from the USA should now also enable the US Federal Reserve to lower the key interest rate in the coming months.
Due to the volatile situation in the world, we remain extremely cautious with our investment policy. We are convinced of the quality of our broadly diversified investments and are maintaining our heavily overweighed positions in precious metals.
We will stay on the ball and wish you and your families a pleasant and peaceful summer.
All Reviews & Outlooks
Review & outlook 24-Q1
Review & outlookApril 24Dear Investor Geopolitical conditions around the globe have continued to deteriorate since our report in January. The situation in the Gaza conflict seems more hopeless than ever, as the US has not yet been prepared to make further military...
Review & outlook 23-Q4
Review & outlookJanuary 24Dear Investor The geopolitical situation around the globe has continued to deteriorate dramatically in recent weeks. Europe is showing ever stronger signs of fatigue when it comes to supporting Ukraine. On the other hand, Russia appears...
Review & outlook 23-Q3
Review & outlookOctober 2023Central banks around the globe continued to raise interest rates in the third quarter of this year. Especially in the US, news from the economic front still indicates an astonishingly subdued response to record-high interest rate...
Review & outlook 23-Q2
Review & outlookJuly 2023The US Federal Reserve has raised benchmark interest rates by 5% since spring 2022 and the market is now expecting US interest rates to rise by a further half a percent over the course of the year. Although inflation rates have been on a...
Review & outlook 23-Q1
Review & outlook April 2023The financial markets have long been warning on the risks posed by the massive interest rate hikes by central banks. But for us too, last month’s collapse of Credit Suisse was a previously unimaginable scenario. The takeover by UBS that...
Review & Outlook 22-Q4
Review & OutlookJanuary 2023An extremely eventful year is now at an end and will go down in the history books. At the beginning of the year, sentiment across the economy was still optimistic due to the waning pandemic, but the optimistic mood was then abruptly...
Review & Outlook 22-Q3
Review- & OutlookOctober 2022The problems plaguing our world are currently so manifold that it would be impossible to list them all within the confines of this letter. Although Ukraine has made some advances in recent weeks thanks to the military aid provided by...
Review & Outlook 22-Q2
Review & OutlookJune 2022The economic situation continued to deteriorate in the second quarter, most notably as the prospect of an imminent end to the war in Ukraine receded. This is impacting on the prices of many commodities such as energy and foods, pushing global...
Review & Outlook 22-Q1
Review & OutlookMarch 2022Schon während der Pandemie der letzten zwei Jahre zeichnete sich ein baldiges Ende der Globalisierung ab. Der Einmarsch Russlands ins Nachbarland hat nun aber definitiv die Weltordnung beendet, an die wir uns seit dem Ende des Kalten...
Review & Outlook 21-Q4
Review & outlookDecember 2021As we now put an extremely turbulent year behind us, it seems harder than ever to reliably forecast what the New Year will bring. Even two years on, we are still completely in the grip of the pandemic and there is no end in sight. The...