Review & outlook
July 25
Ladies and gentlemen
With global stock markets at record highs, it is easy to get the impression that the global economy is well on its way to paradise.
But this impression is deceptive. For over two years, we have been reporting in this quarterly publication on the growing trouble spots on our planet – and the global situation continues to deteriorate.
Regardless of the emotionally coloured view of the trouble spots in Ukraine and the Middle East, it must be noted that a timely and sustainable solution to the conflicts currently seems hardly realistic.
The global economy continues to be affected by the drastic tariff measures threatened by US President Trump. The longer the uncertainty lasts, the more serious the long-term impact will be on the companies affected by this trade conflict. Despite announced tariff agreements with various countries, confidence remains low – not least because President Trump has repeatedly revised his positions in the past and replaced them with new threats. As a result, the United States has lost considerable credibility with large parts of the international community.
The US national debt is increasingly spiralling out of control. The “One Big Beautiful Bill” programme announced by President Trump is expected to significantly increase the US budget deficit again in the coming years. Since the controversial measure taken by the United States in 2022 to freeze Russian central bank deposits, the role of the US dollar as a neutral reserve currency has come under increasing scrutiny. For many years, central banks have therefore been shifting their currency reserves and increasingly favouring physical gold over the US dollar. The ECB recently reported that 20% of global central bank reserves are now invested in gold, compared to 16% in euros and 46% in US dollars. The importance of this should not be underestimated as confidence in the US dollar is waning.
The financial markets are currently in the typical summer doldrums. Sudden, unforeseen and momentous events could therefore shake the markets considerably. We will therefore remain very cautious in the coming weeks. At the same time, we are relying on our broadly diversified investments in solid companies and are maintaining our significantly overweighted position in precious metals.
We would like to thank you for your trust and wish you a lovely, relaxing summer full of wonderful moments.
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