Review- & Outlook

October 2022

The problems plaguing our world are currently so manifold that it would be impossible to list them all within the confines of this letter.

Although Ukraine has made some advances in recent weeks thanks to the military aid provided by the West, this in turn increases the pressure on Russia and entails the risk of escalation with potentially apocalyptic consequences.

In the Far East, the US is raising the pressure on China through import and export duties as well as export restrictions, while at the same time provoking China by expressing its friendship with Taiwan.

The sanctions imposed by the West on Russia, and by the US on China, in turn increase the pressure on those countries to reorganise themselves and seek common trade solutions. The international divide between East and West is therefore growing noticeably wider. The end of globalisation means that many countries now want to produce the products they need themselves, but this will impact negatively on inflation.

Inflation rates may now have passed their zenith. But let’s not hold high hopes that inflation rates will soon fall sharply. Energy and food prices in particular will keep global inflation high in the near term.

Central banks around the globe are trying to counter the inflationary pressures by raising interest rates. Out in front is the US, which has so far raised its central bank rate by 3% over the course of the year. As Europe especially is unable to replicate these interest rate moves on the same scale due to economic conditions, this is leading to an ever stronger US currency due to the growing interest rate differential. This in turn is causing considerable financial difficulties for heavily US dollar-indebted developing countries. As a result, there is an emerging risk of a global financial crisis, which would have catastrophic consequences for the US, too. In recent days, there has therefore been increasing hope that, in light of these crises at least, the US might also pause temporarily, despite its vehement announcements that further interest rate moves are absolutely necessary.

For years, inflation rates will remain well above the interest rates obtainable on cash deposits. The main reason is the unsustainable global debt pile, which can likely only be reduced to a level more sustainable over the long term through the erosion of value caused by inflation. The purchasing power of our currencies will steadily decrease, making it essential to invest wealth in high-quality assets such as equities, real estate and precious metals which, over time, generate growth rates in excess of inflation.

As the situation in Ukraine began to escalate in February of this year, the gold price rose to a new all-time high. In unison with the slump in equity markets, however, precious metals prices also came under pressure from the massive interest rate hikes in the US and the strong US dollar. Since the all-time lows in mid-September, metals have staged a slight recovery. In local currencies (Swiss franc, euro), the gold price is already back above the prices at the end of last year. As soon as we receive a clear signal from central banks that reduces the pressure for higher interest rates, we expect precious metals prices to rise sharply again.

The negative financial market performance in the third quarter also impacted on our investments. We are convinced of the quality of our broadly diversified investments and are keeping to our long-term investment policy, even in these difficult times. The positive turnaround in market sentiment over the past few days makes us cautiously optimistic about the rest of the year.

We would like to thank you for your trust and wish you many more beautiful autumn days to come.

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